The La Nina weather pattern is in force in the Pacific Ocean off Chile, and that means less snow in the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut tri-state region. At least, that's what the National Weather Service is predicting – a forecast that more or less concurs with the Old Farmer's Almanac, which makes its predictions based on sunspots, tidal waves and astrological positions. Says the Almanac: "Colder than normal winter temperatures" will prevail, but snowfall slightly below average.
But the question on the minds of all – once you get past the discomfort and inconvenience of freeze-your-hair-off winds and rush-hour blizzard conditions – is what will happen with the potholes. Will the exit ramps off the Major Deegan Expressway inflict mortal damage to your wheel rims come March? When borough traversing on the Cross Bronx Expressway, will you need to summon your inner NASCAR skills to avoid the chuckholes that otherwise spell doom to your axel? Will it be worse traveling in Westchester County than, say the Merritt Parkway in CT or I-78 in, around or through Newark?

Time will tell, but there's plenty to be worried about. Think back to the middle of May 2010, when the Metropolitan Transit Authority bridge and tunnel division announced they were changing all pothole repairs and highway sign maintenance to the graveyard shift, 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. That agency was working on closing a $400 million budget shortfall – a problem facing highway maintenance departments from sea to shining sea in America – and make no mistake, this was more about savings than it was traffic improvement. But now, instead of paying crews overtime to fix the potholes at night, they are working at regular wages.
Said MTA chief Jay Walder, there "isn't anything the drivers will notice, unless in a good way, because we're doing things at times when it's less disruptive to them."
Better pothole filling technologies
Walder has more tools to accomplish that than did his predecessors ten or more years ago.
The world of road paving and maintenance has improved considerably since the 1990s, due to a federally funded initiative called the Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP). The program looked at new techniques and technologies that can address problems that are becoming more prevalent in the country's aging infrastructure (given how massive road building projects under Robert Moses and the Eisenhower Administration happened 50 or more years ago).
SHRP research, conducted through both universities and private companies, studied the intrinsic nature of traffic, weather, asphalt, concrete and how local and state maintenance and safety programs were run. From this research, more than 100 new products were developed and shared with public highway maintenance entities.
What does this have to do with potholes in Passaic? Plenty. One of the breakthroughs of the research was the Superpave program (the name is trademarked), which breaks down into three parts:
<ul>
<li>Asphalt binder specifications that account for installation logistics as much as longevity.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>A design and analysis system, based on the volumetric properties of an asphalt mix.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Models for mix-analysis tests and performance prediction (i.e., knowing better how to adapt the asphalt formulation to specific roads)</li>
</ul>
Most important in the full breadth of SHRP research was designing pavement to fit variables in climate and traffic conditions. After all, a pretty but less-traveled road through the Poconos is going to experience different wear-and-tear than the Long Island Expressway, just as that highway is different from, say, any road in Arizona.
When it comes to asphalt installation and longevity, a breakthrough was the development of premium cold mix. Typically, asphalt is heated in a plant to give the petroleum-aggregate stone mix elasticity, enabling the mix to form to cracks and potholes in the road. The problem is that hot mix cools off within a few hours, especially in winter, such that a truckload of hot mix might need to return to the plant for expensive reprocessing in order to get it sufficiently warm enough to use. With cold mix, the product can be stored on highway property for months and used on an as-needed basis.
Good cold and bad cold (asphalt mix, not weather)
Note, there are different grades of cold mix asphalt. Lower grades tend to be used in emergencies, when a hole emerges overnight and needs to be fixed to enable a smoother morning rush hour. Unfortunately, that pothole patch might last about as long as it takes to drive from the Upper East Side to Montauk on a cold afternoon in January.
Premium grade (example: EZ Street Cold Asphalt) is another story. It costs a bit more than both hot mix and lower-grade cold mix asphalt, but the savings result in several important ways. First, crews can work from stockpiles, eliminating time-consuming trips to asphalt plants every few hours. More importantly, the longevity of the asphalt reduces the need for repeated repair of the same potholes in a single season, while fewer lawsuits result from motor accidents caused by poorly tended highway. Drivers too benefit when potholes and utility cuts are smoothed over by premium quality cold mix, because traffic flows more smoothly and they suffer less damage to their vehicles from pothole hits.
Of course, all of this is still dependent on budget. TodaysTrucking.com gave a callout to New Jersey as a good example of low administrative costs ($63,000 per mile) associated with state road maintenance expenses, as compared to California's $100,000 per mile in administration costs. But those are about just the overhead. The real number of concern is how New Jersey spends $1.1 million each year per mile of state highway (California's is $545,000 per mile). The difference is in part climate related, even though California is just as susceptible to pothole formation due to moisture and heat.
So will the departments of transportation in New York, Newark, East Orange, New Rochelle, White Plains, Commack, Greenwich and Norwalk fight the winter pothole season with a Superpave, premium cold mix strategy? Time will tell. But given the constrained budgetary conditions of each state and municipality, reflecting the cutbacks motorists and companies are experiencing, a smarter pavement maintenance program seems like a good offensive move against winter weather – regardless if the Old Farmer's Almanac is right or wrong.

Winter 2011 May Bring Average Conditions – And Extraordinary Potholes – to the NYC Tri-State Region

The weather predictions for the first part of the winter of 2010-2011 are coming in. Without question, in New England there will be snow, cold, rain, rain-snow mixes interspersed with fair and warmer days. In Massachusetts, there will be less snow than in Maine – mostly because Maine is bigger and further north. But suffice it to say, with precipitation, snow or rain or sleet come hazardous road conditions – both while the rain, snow and sleet fall and in the aftermath, because of the potholes they leave behind.
The Farmers' Almanac predicts the first widespread snow mixed with rain and ice sometime between November 4 and 7. More rain and wet snow is predicted for the mountainous areas (Massachusetts Berkshires, New Hampshire White Mountains, Vermont's Green Mountains), as is typical.
The Old Famer's Almanac – there are two different farmers' almanacs – predicts roughly the same conditions at the same time. The U.S. National Weather Service does not provide long-term forecasts.
On average, southern New England (Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island) get about 35 inches of snowfall per year, while the northern and more hilly and mountainous areas (Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine) get up to 100 inches annually. The average temperature, mid-November through the end of March, is 25 degrees Fahrenheit (-3 degrees Celsius).
True Yankees understand all of this, of course. It's why their outdoors wardrobes and clothing suppliers (LL Bean, et al.) may look the same – lots of plaid, wool and corduroy – but are actually a study in layering. When driving from, say, Northampton, Massachusetts to Providence, Rhode Island, you might go through weather and road condition changes two or three times. If the I-90 toll road is in good condition, cross your fingers the Worcester-Providence Turnpike is too. Hit a bad break in the pavement (thank you, winter potholes) and you're out there somewhere near Woonsocket changing a flat tire and hoping the wheel rims are ok. And glad you packed a rain slicker to protect you from a salty splash of semis barreling past you.
Leftover potholes
In New England, there is a lot of charm in old things – colonial barns and homes come to mind – which draw tourists from all over the world. But old potholes are not part of the enchantment. They simply are the result of snow, rain and the freeze-thaw cycles. They sometime pop up overnight, but at the same time get old fast.
That's because potholes have a tendency to grow. What is leftover from 2009, or earlier, is likely bigger today and will get bigger tomorrow and next year. Eventually, untended potholes become impassable roadways.
Of course, in New England there are plenty of solutions at work. Consider how in Boston, there were 8,500 people who downloaded the phone app that allows you to report street problems, such as potholes (<a href="http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/10/12/missing_link_app_will_connect_citizens/">Boston Citizens Connect 2.0</a>), directly to the city. That's 8,500 sets of eyes, combing the highways and byways – last winter the program worked only on Apple iPhones, but the update can be loaded onto Droid and BlackBerry phones and personal computers. So the citizens patrol in Massachusetts will likely double in size in 2011.
An expanded program might have prevented a major traffic tie-up in Medford, Massachusetts back in August, when a single, large pothole created rush hour mayhem on all four northbound lanes of I-93. Crews had to work through the night to repair it in time for the following morning rush hour, which typically carries more than 100,000 vehicles per day. Vibrations from a three-year, resurfacing project fixing on- and off-ramps from I-93 to Somerville and Medford actually led to the opening of potholes on the Valley Street overpass in Medford, tying up traffic on that street the same week.
Summarizing that problem to a reporter from the <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/08/i-93_in_medford.html">Boston Globe</a>, Frank Tramontozzi, chief engineer for the Department of Transportation, said "It's like when your neighbor's house needs painting and your neighbor doesn't paint it for 10 years, so instead of it needing painting now, the siding has rotted out."
Providence, Rhode Island voters certainly have potholes on their minds. At <a href="http://politicsblog.projo.com/2010/07/providence-mayo-6.html">a debate</a> last July among candidates vying for the mayor's seat, poor pavement was at the center of the conversation, ranking alongside education, city finances and downtown development. Responding to an audience member regarding potholes, the first candidate said it was a symbol of unresponsive government and poor communications between departments. A second candidate emphasized how potholes have been with the city for quite for time, while a third candidate interprets unfixed potholes as a symbol of abuse and corruption.
Pavement repair dollars from the Feds
The federal stimulus dollars are reaching the New England states, and where there is stimulus money, there are road repairs. Several prominent projects include:
<ul>
<li>The resurfacing of VT4A in Fair Haven, Vermont, a $2.6 million grant, as well as a resurfacing of VT25 in Bradford, Corinth, Topsham and Orange, Vermont with a $5.3 million grant.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The rehabilitation of roads and parking at SERC, Acadia National Park in Maine, with a grant for $256,000.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Highway reconstruction of Route 1A Ellsworth, beginning at the Rabbit Road, extending southeasterly more than 2.5 miles to Old Bangor Road, in Augusta, Maine with a grant of $7.8 million.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>4R resurfacing in District 1 of Concord, New Hampshire, with a grant of $3.3 million. Additionally in Concord, a $235,000 grant was awarded to provide a new top surface for the Stone Arch Bridge (which also included shoring up the stone masonry).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>A particularly aggressive resurfacing, guardrail replacement and bridge rehabilitation (Wilbur Road) is underway in Lincoln, Rhode Island on Route 146. The grant amount is for $10.8 million.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Resurfacing of Route 18/28 from Bridgewater Center, Massachusetts to the Middleborough rotary (the intersection with Route 44), as well as drainage improvements, with a grant of $2.8 million.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Resurfacing on Route 6 in Yarmouth Port, Massachusetts, from Somerset town line to the Rehoboth town line, including repair of frost heaves and sidewalk reconstruction, for a cost of $4.2 million.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Resurfacing and related work on route 24 in Avon and Stoughton, Massachusetts, at a cost of $5.1 million.</li>
</ul>
Of course, it's pretty well accepted that many of these "shovel ready" projects that received priority funding in the stimulus program were not quite cleared and contracted for in 2009 or even 2010. But with winter weather on the way – and the near certainty of moisture and freeze/thaw cycles guaranteed to make every pothole larger and deeper – one hopes that Yankee ingenuity on these and hundreds of other road repair grants get those projects up and done in time.

2010-2011 WINTER WEATHER PREDICTIONS FOR NEW ENGLAND: Yankee Ingenuity Fixes Little Potholes Now to Prevent Much Bigger Potholes Later (Part 2 of 2)

We are not sure why there are competing farmers in the world of Almanacs, and why neither of them had the good sense to set up their own cable weather channel. Instead of Jim Cantore standing in sideways wind and talking about storm surges during every hurricane, we might have gotten someone losing their John Deere hat while talking about the benefits of rain.
But it is reassuring that year after year, the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac are still published. And their predictions, when proven true, are highly touted the following year. For the winter of 2010 – 2011, here is what they tell us to look forward to in the Northeast/New England states:

<blockquote>The Farmers' Almanac: "The eastern third of the country, (New England down to Florida and as far west as the lower Ohio River and Mississippi River Valley), will experience colder-than-normal winter temperatures. Across New England, where relatively balmy temperatures prevailed during the winter of 2009–2010, the upcoming winter will be the equivalent of a cold slap in the face, as we forecast much colder-than-normal temperatures."</blockquote>
<blockquote>The Old Farmer's Almanac: "Winter will be colder and drier than normal, on average, with below-normal snowfall in New England and above-normal snowfall elsewhere. The coldest periods will be in mid-December, January, and mid-February. The snowiest periods will be in early January and mid- and late February."</blockquote>
So it seems that winter is actually going to happen this year, and no one can predict for certain exactly how bad it will be. Homeowners might give an extra effort to home winterizing projects (before tax incentives expire at the end of the year). State and local highway departments might find that snowplows and salt will be in less demand with less precipitation.
But one prediction subject to no debate is that potholes tend to coincide with winter. It's a natural reaction to freeze-thaw cycles. But note: potholes plague the streets of Los Angeles, Miami and Honolulu almost as much as Bangor (Maine), Bristol (Connecticut), Burlington (Vermont) and Brookline (Massachusetts). Culprits in road deterioration include moisture, wear and tear and inattention to repair.
And no one said rain or snow won't happen this winter in New England. There will be precipitation in Connecticut, flurries in Vermont, gales off of Gloucester (Massachusetts), sleet in New Hampshire and Nor'easters over Rhode Island. It's really just a question of quantity. That means that pavement deterioration and potholes can happen on Interstate 84, Interstate 87, Interstate 91, Interstate 90, Interstate 95, Interstate 295, Interstate 495 and Route 85, Route 81, Route 8, Route 15, Route 35, Route 7, Route 202, Route 190, Route 197 and … well, you get the picture.
Road problems in Connecticut
These regional weather conditions and their effect on pavement deterioration affect every state equally. But a sampling of news stories in and around Connecticut gives us some idea of how many problems – and how much attention – can accrue on the streets, highways, roads and byways. Here are a few of those stories.
As reported in The Bristol Press, there was controversy in the city's pothole claims program – or rather, the difficulties residents sometimes experience with it. In the spring of 2010, a city councilor stated publicly that Bristol needed to wait 90 days as a cost-cutting measure before paying on motorists' vehicle damage claims from rough pavement. A firestorm ensued, with the mayor threatening to toss the councilor off the city's claims committee, even while the newspaper editorialized about Bristol's inadequate infrastructure budget.
The newspaper also initiated a function on its website (<a href="http://www.bristolpress.com/">www.BristolPress.com</a>), where local drivers could posit their thoughts on where the worst potholes were. One poster described a street as an "off-road" experience – given the fact this is the home of sports network ESPN, one can't help but think there's an extreme sports reality show in this somewhere.
In Fairfield County, The Hour Online <a href="http://www.thehour.com/story/484821">reported</a> that the Norwalk Department of Public Works was unable to hire additional workers last April to satisfy "motorists angry about choppy roadways." The city's mayor noted that permanent paving projects would also be pursued in 2010, but that those would happen later in the year. In Stamford itself, a March storm occupied city crews with tree branch clean up that somewhat delayed their annual pavement rehabilitation program. In February, March and early April, 233 pothole complaints were received and 100 immediately remedied by the city. "Unfortunately, potholes are to some extent an inevitability in this type of climate," a department of transportation spokesperson said.
With so many potholes in the Northeast, it is with a little bit of irony that one notes a program from The Hartford auto insurance group is helping fix roads in places such as Portland, Oregon and Tucson, Arizona. Which makes sense – car insurance companies bear the brunt of auto damage from rough pavement, which on average is more than $400 per year per car. The company donated cash to cover materials and labor, according to the <a href="http://azstarnet.com/news/local/article_e9ab12b7-2eb0-555c-8b91-faa721eb8fc9.html?mode=story">Arizona Daily Star</a>. The costs in Portland to help fix some of their potholes was $6,000 (a winning worst pothole is featured at <a href="http://blog.oregonlive.com/commuting/2010/08/months_after_it_was_fixed_port.html">OregonLive.com</a>) – although in most municipalities that's a drop in the water-filled pothole. The funds needed to fix all of America's deteriorating pavement is north of $100 billion.
Understandably, motorists are miffed. The comments sections in many of these articles about potholes, throughout the Northeast, suggest an increasing problem that have to provide headaches to departments of highways and transportation. They all are strapped for cash, and yet it is the thing that citizens complain about the most. But this exchange among posters to the Norwalk Hour article shows you can't win for losing sometimes:
<blockquote>Poster A: Leave the potholes unfilled in the residential neighborhoods. The potholes become a very effective vehicle speed enforcement component in a system that otherwise provides little to no speed enforcement otherwise.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Poster B: Are you suggesting that vehicles swerving violently or sometimes driving on the wrong side of the road to avoid the darn craters is somehow safer?! I&#8217;m fed up, personally…they&#8217;re out of control!</blockquote>
The 2009 federal stimulus program is at work to help with this, enough that perhaps some segments of streets and highways will be fixed in time for the winter of 2010 – 2011. Here are some such projects from StimulusWatch.org, which tracks the investment of funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009:
<ul>
<li>East Hartford: $2.2 million in a highway infrastructure investment grant, which will go to crack sealing and crack filling on several expressways (Route 8, I-84, I-91, I-95 and I-384).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>West Hartford: $113,400 to replace five police cruisers in use by the city. Perhaps this is because they have had to chase criminals from West Hartford to East Hartford?</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Newington: $4.5 million for pavement preservation of CT-8, Main Street Seymour through CT-63 (Naugatuck, Beacon Falls). The city also received an additional $7.9 million to mill and overlay pavement from Buckland Street to Deming Street in Manchester, plus resurfacing of Route 2 (east and westbound) from Colchester to Lebanon.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Rocky Hill: $4.7 million for a pavement preservation program on I-91 from West Street to Route 3 (Rocky Hill and Wethersfield), plus $779,000 for milling and overlay pavement from Glastonbury Avenue to just past the bridge over Goff Brook.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>South Windsor: $1.9 million to mill and overlay about 4,400 feed of Buckland Road, north from the Manchester town line.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Windsor: $1.4 million to mill and overlay pavement, plus drainage and curbing from Blue Hills Avenue to Great Pond Drive.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Mystic: $905,700 to complete the streetscape improvements in Stonington.</li>
</ul>
How many of these projects are completed? The website tracking them needs a little bit of updating – but thanks to the media in cities large and small throughout the country, motorists experiencing bad potholes will certainly let local officials know where the roads need some fixing.

Winter & Weather

Winter 2011 May Bring Average Conditions – And Extraordinary Potholes – to the NYC Tri-State Region

2010-2011 WINTER WEATHER PREDICTIONS FOR NEW ENGLAND: Yankee Ingenuity Fixes Little Potholes Now to Prevent Much Bigger Potholes Later (Part 2 of 2)

2010-2011 Winter Weather Predictions for New England: Last Year's Potholes Get Fixed – Or Get Bigger (Part 1 of 2)