The weather conditions also mean that fewer potholes will form. But will the money saved go to fixing the potholes that are already there?

National Public Radio reported in early February that there are multiple positive economic effects from the milder winter. Private construction projects are proceeding in places where temperatures and precipitation might otherwise preclude such economy-boosting factors from happening. Retail and restaurant traffic is up – it’s more likely that people will shop and go out when the roads are dry and the temperatures tolerable.

An NPR reporter interviewed Scott Bernhardt, whose firm Planalytics (based in Berwyn, Pennsylvania) looks at how weather affects economics, industry and consumer behavior. He explained that “local governments are saving tens of thousands of dollars because the snowplows and salt trucks are in dry dock,” according to the NPR report, which noted how 42 percent of the U.S. had snow cover in January 2011, but less than 13 percent of the country was under snow one year later, in January 2012.

Potholes are not absolutely tied to winter weather, of course. Pavement deterioration is a function of one, several or all of the following: moisture, freeze-thaw cycles, traffic loads and time, meaning that potholes can happen anywhere (some of the worst-rated roads in the U.S. are in Los Angeles and Honolulu, illustrating the point). But certainly, snow that falls on a 29-degree (F) day, packed into ice by moving vehicles will become water that gets into pavement cracks a few hours or days later when the temperatures rise just a few degrees. As trucks and cars roll across those cracks, the water is pushed deeper into the sub-pavement, where it might refreeze overnight and further undermine stressed asphalt. In a relatively short period of time, potholes appear.

Will dollars saved be used to repair potholes?

Many local municipalities are consequently reporting leftover cash from lower-than-budgeted use of snowplows and salt trucks this winter, and some are already talking about using the funds for infrastructure remediation. Some examples:

• The Hazeldon, Pennsylvania StandardSpeaker.com reported in January that Hazeldon city crews are out fixing potholes, something they typically would not be doing until spring, when temperatures are more accommodating to hot asphalt mix (which cannot be applied in cold temperatures). The city had overspent its budget by $100,000 in 2007 when a massive snowstorm required hiring in outside snow removal contractors.

• Le Mars, Iowa, the seat of Plymouth County, the savings in December alone from having no snow removal was between $50,000 and $60,000, about 15 percent of the secondary road budget. “Fuel usage is about half or 60 percent of what it is when they are plowing snow,” said Tom Rohe, county engineer, to the Le Mars Sentinel. “We’re not running 14 trucks on a route right now so our truck usage and fuel usage is quite a bit less.” Rohe said that if the favorable mild winter weather continues, they will be able to replace bridges and repair pavement in 2012.

• Buffalo, New York, the seat of Erie County and regarded by many television meteorologists as the snow capital of the east, has seen significant savings in this season. While the ski resorts in the southern tier of the state, a mere hour’s drive south of Buffalo, are suffering, the county has thus far chalked up savings to the tune of $550,000 in salt, $120,000 in truck fuel and $150,000 in (budgeted) overtime pay. The nearby suburb of Amherst, home to the State University of New York Buffalo campus, expects to save about a half-million dollars if weather trends continue, reports the Buffalo News.

Regardless of location and even the cause of pavement potholes, delayed repairs have a multiplier effect on costs. By some estimates, every dollar not spent on repairs turns into seven dollars of cost in five years time. Road engineers and directors of departments of transportation understand this all too well, but recessionary times have meant more delays in crack sealing, pothole repairs and asphalt top-coating – putting off until the future the repairs that should be undertaken now.

With this winter’s reprieve from snow plowing and salt use, perhaps more of those pavement repairs will be made on a timely basis.

Sledge’s article looks at developed and developing countries such as China, Japan and the Russian Federation, which help illustrate by contrast the woefully under-funded inland transport infrastructure found in the U.S.

Key points in this article include:

• Goals and outcomes for infrastructure funding by the federal government are lacking. According to the transportation director at the General Accounting Office, “There’s no data or information or evidence of what kind of returns we get from the federal investment dollar.”

• The American Society of Civil Engineers calculate that deteriorating roads will diminish U.S. business growth by $240 billion between now and 2022.

• The source of highway maintenance dollars – the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) –is based in gas consumption, which is diminishing due to improved fuel efficiencies (this topic is explained in detail on Pothole.info).

• A Harvard economist argues that infrastructure funding should be paid for by “a local constituency.” One example he provides is airports, used not by everyone therefore suggesting a rationale for repairing runways and concourses through user fees, not local or federal tax revenues.

• A bipartisan effort in the U.S. Senate (sponsored by R-TX Kay Bailey Hutchison and D-MA John Kerry) to create an infrastructure bank differs from a PPP-based proposal from House Transportation Committee Chair John Mica (R-FL). The reporter suggests that PPPs might be an effective ways of ridding infrastructure programs of pork-barrel projects that fail to achieve “authentically valuable infrastructure spending.”

• An official from the Progressive Policy Institute suggests that projects which promote consumer spending (such as access roads to shopping malls) and cheaper imports (improving shipping ports) do not promote businesses that operate and manufacture at home in the U.S. “Tunnels and bridges between places in the United States, by contrast, would allow goods produced here to get to market more easily,” he says.

This comprehensive overview neatly encapsulates both the scope of the problem and the complexity of solutions. At the very least, it offers very good reference points to further intelligent discussions of the challenge to fix the scourge of every driver in America, the lowly (and expensive) pothole.

Statewide, the average annual cost-per-vehicle from damage due to roads in poor condition is $457, according to TRIP (a national transportation research group which researches surface transportation issues). In Oklahoma City, those costs rise to $631 per vehicle (for comparison, in Los Angeles it is $746, Omaha $592 and Philadelphia $525). These costs are incurred when bumpy pavement causes flat tires, bent wheel rims, broken axels, broken suspension systems and lost or cracked catalytic converters.

Oklahoma City Public Works Director Eric Wenger does what they can to keep bad roads at bay. In addition to crack sealing and resurfacing crews, the city maintains 12 dedicated vehicles and crews to fill potholes that populate 7500 lane miles of paved roads in the city. “We are one of the largest cities by land in the country,” says Wenger. “That is 621 square miles.”

These 2-workman crews are at work 12 months out of the year because the climate conditions cause no seasonal concentrations of potholes, rather just a steady emergence of them. The city has a system for fixing potholes that combines citizen reporting with what road crews themselves see. Phone calls into the pothole hotline are compiled and assigned to road crews, whose goal is to fix them within three days of receiving the report.

Additionally, overall pavement quality is maintained by monitoring all streets with a truck-mounted electronic device that can read the quality of the road surface. This information helps the department of public works to determine where crack sealing and microsurfacing are needed (the city resurfaces about 100 miles of roads each year). When a paved surface rates a Pavement Condition Index (PCI) of 40 or less, it is scheduled for repair, resurfacing or reconstruction.

Pothole repairs cost money, save money

Oklahoma City allocates about $1.2 million for pothole repairs, and has 221,892 registered vehicles within the city. Additionally, the city is a hub to regional commerce and therefore draws in many more vehicles on a daily basis. If the total number of vehicles that regularly ply the streets of Oklahoma City is 300,000 – just a guess – that means the allocation of pothole-fixing dollars is $4 per vehicle.

Factoring in also the car-saving value of crack sealing, micro-resurfacing and other methods for maintaining smooth pavement, the total amount spent on road maintenance in 2010 was $9.388 million, or about $31.29 per vehicle. Compared to the cost to fix vehicles per year due to rough roads ($631), those road repairs still appear to be a relative bargain.

How important are these expenditures? The city annually surveys residents on their opinions about how the municipality is run and where dollars might be best allocated. The 2011 Oklahoma City DirectionFinder® Survey identified that residents ranked as number one the maintenance of city streets, followed by traffic flow and the quality of police services. Among survey respondents, 56 percent said that the condition of major city streets was their first, second or third choice for city maintenance projects.

“We have no major public transportation service to speak of here,” explains Wenger (a bus system does provide 3 million rides annually). “Almost everyone drives.”

George Weir of Escondido has been doing that for three years, but on a much grander scale. The owner of Escondido Asphalt, Inc. (and several other businesses in construction and agriculture) has been putting between $80,000 and $100,000 of company resources to work in each of the past three years on the city’s roads, streets and alleys.

That is volunteer work. Uncompensated. He does it because he wants to improve the city.

“People realize that the condition of our streets is emblematic of our economy,” says the 57-year-old Weir, who founded his business after working for his own father, a teacher, in a part-time driveway seal-coating business. “Potholes resonate with people because they show how far we’ve fallen behind.”

Indeed, the City of Escondido formerly had two trucks dedicated to pothole repairs, but budget cuts reduced that to one. Weir subsequently met with the city council to present his idea of providing crew, truck and materials to address their broken pavement problems.

Not just anyone can voluntarily fix a city’s potholes, of course. You need trucks, crew, asphalt supply and some expertise. But just as important, most cities require you to be insured and have the bonding ability to work in a municipal right-of-way. Weir had all that and a general engineers certification, which is required in many cities as well.

The Escondido Asphalt crews get their orders from the city, which put into service a smartphone application, “Escondido, Report It!,” in May 2011.  It streamlines the reporting process, allowing citizens to take a photo of the pothole, which automatically tags it with a GPS location. A traditional reporting system through phone calls and the city website are also used. Those reports are received by Weir’s crews on Thursdays, which they generally put to work on Fridays.

Citizen response to the volunteer pothole repair work is perhaps warmer and more personal than with taxpayer-supported crews. “People come out of their houses with cookies and gifts,” reports Weir. In some cases, members of churches and other organizations have provided their own volunteers to help the crew. As long as the truck and a bonded and insured driver are present, it meets all legal requirements.

Why does George Weir tackle this task with no financial reward?

The answer to the question is painted on the side of the repair vehicle. It says, “Do Something!” with the tagline, “Make your life count.” It’s part of his own philosophy, which combines a faith-based imperatives toward charity with the general philosophy that communities need people who know how to give back for the sake of the common good.

“This town raised me,” says the Escondido native. “Stimulus works from the bottom up, I think. Everybody should do what they can, with whatever they have to give. Our country was founded on the principles of giving back.

“It doesn’t hurt that our businesses are vertically integrated,” he continues, explaining how the elements of pothole repair are all under his collective roofs, so to speak. Weir’s enterprises include Escondido Sand & Gravel and George Weir Asphalt Construction.

The firm began providing free pothole repairs on less-traveled streets in year one, which enabled them to master their pothole repair operation. Since the second year, they have been fixing bad pavement on busier thoroughfares, typically with a three-person crew that can handle a higher demand for safe traffic management.

At least one local business, Champion’s Restaurant, has experienced an improvement in business operations due to the work of the volunteer pothole repair crew. The repairs were actually necessary in the alley behind the restaurant, which enabled food deliveries from the back of the house. Add to that it’s a well-understood fact that when streets in front of a retail business are in good repair, business traffic can increase as well.

How long might Weir’s crews provide this service? “Until the city says stop, we’ll keep doing it,” he says.

It was a bold move in recessionary times, and the vote might provide a case study from which the rest of the country might learn. Throughout the country, from the expressways of California to the bridges of New Jersey – with thousands of other spans in between, including 3,538 bridges closed for safety deficiencies in 2010 alone – crumbling infrastructure is plaguing business. Efforts to restore streets and bridges to safe, smooth passageways can have a beneficial impact on commerce; as of now, the opposite is happening.

The San Francisco vote was on the Road Repaving and Street Repair bond proposition, Measure B, on the November 8, 2011 ballot. Sixty-eight percent of voters (129,175 ballots) favored it, while 32 percent opposed (60,741 voters) – achieving the necessary two-thirds approval to pass the funding referenda.

The economics of the Bay Area are not terribly different from the rest of the country, with a 9.1 percent unemployment rate at the end of 2011. And about 31 percent of workers in San Francisco commute via public transportation, one of the highest percentages in the U.S. (New Yorkers are highest at 55 percent, followed by Washington, D.C. at 37 percent, Boston at 31 percent and 27 percent each in Chicago and Philadelphia).

Still, civic leaders argued that the quality and safety of their infrastructure was important to business. Why is that not so clear in other places, where surface transportation is used by a larger percentage of people?

Crumbling bridges and how it affects business

When the Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels determined in September 2011 to close the Sherman Minton Bridge – a double-deck through-arch span which links Louisville, Kentucky with New Albany, Indiana via I-64 and US-150 over the Ohio River – it was more than an inconvenience to 80,000 motorists who crossed it every day. It had a significant economic impact on businesses and consumers.

For example, Bloomberg News reported that a jewelry store in nearby Jeffersonville, Indiana saw a 40 percent drop in business within two weeks.

The news service also quotes a New York-based attorney who specializes in construction law. “Bridge failures throw a monkey wrench into the economic life of communities,” said the lawyer. “Things aren’t going to get better, things are going to get much worse.”

The attorney was referencing bridge failures of the past and, likely, the future. The most immediate example is the August 2007catastrophic collapse of the I-35W bridge in Minneapolis-St. Paul. As a result, the regional economy lost $73 million – in addition to 13 deaths and 145 injuries.

The cost of fixing the Sherman Minton Bridge in Louisville will be approximately $20 million. Other known factors relative to infrastructure deterioration in the U.S. are:

• Overall, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) says that combined business and household losses in the U.S. due to surface transportation disrepair – potholed roads and unsafe bridges – total about $130 billion.

• The average useful life of bridges is about 50 years, and the average age of all U.S. bridges is currently 43 years.

• The total cost of repairing the known 3,538 deficient bridges would be $140 billion. This amount is three times the amount of money generated annually by the Highway Trust Fund (the federal taxes on fuel and tires), which is primarily designed to fund road construction and mass transit.

• The economic impact of a bridge closing is a function of three factors: traffic load (vehicles-per-day), the commuter-commercial traffic mix and proximity to other bridges.

• The ASCE assessed the condition of all U.S. bridges and roads on an A-F grading system in 2009, handing down a C grade to all bridges and D for overall U.S. infrastructure.

The widespread incidence of bridges and highways going temporarily or permanently out of service is now factored into how larger companies conduct their business. Delivery firms that include UPS and FedEx have developed software and information systems that help drivers take cost-effective detours when necessary. The business of rerouting gets a little more complicated for large-load haulers who must plan for bridge clearances and load capacities.

It’s not just the vehicles carrying large, heavy cargo on interstates – consider what happens in rural farmland. A Randolph, Nebraska farmer had been using a township-maintained bridge for more than 30 years when it collapsed under the weight of his $350,000 combine. Because the farm implement was 11 tons heavier than the load limit, he was charged a $28,000 fine by the town to rebuild the bridge. The Illinois Corn Marketing Board says that when bridges are closed to farmers and consequently force them to take long detours, the cost to produce corn increases measurably.

Proposition B raises $65 million per year to fix San Francisco infrastructure

Arguments for the San Francisco bill focused on residential and smaller areas, where access could serve the day-to-day needs of voters. The ballot referendum language said it would “fix potholes and repave deteriorating streets in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco, repair and strengthen deteriorating stairways, bridges and overpasses, improve safety for pedestrians and bicyclists, improve disabled access to sidewalks, and construct and renovate traffic infrastructure to improve …transit reliability and traffic flow on local streets.”

Where it comes to transportation, what’s good for the person is good for the economy. The less time people spend getting to work, the more time they have available to actually do things. Taking that a step further, the prevailing just-in-time commercial environment depends on the speedy arrival of materials and equipment to maintain productivity.

In the lead up to the vote, politicians and pundits voiced their ideas, facts and opinions on the measure:

• San Francisco Examiner: “If Prop. B passes, which will require a two-thirds vote, spending on streets would increase to $65 million in the current fiscal year.” The previous year it was just $23.8 million, although it was $50.6 million in the year prior.

• Supervisor Sean Elsbernd (to the Examiner): Arguing to repair the streets from general revenues, not a bond measure: “I fully recognize our streets need dollars, I get it. They desperately do. I just don’t think this is the way to fund that work.”

• Supervisor Scott Weiner (to CBS/KCBS News): Parsing the difference between potholes and wholesale rebuilding of the streets: “Of course it would be inappropriate to use bonds to pay for filling potholes. But when we are talking about reconstructing our roads – that does have a long lifespan.”

What was clear in the media coverage of this vote, before and after, is that no one argues against the need to fix the streets, bridges and other facets of infrastructure. This is something people experience on a daily basis, as it happens in almost every municipality around the country. No one likes potholes.

The question centers on how to go about eliminating those potholes, reconstructing streets and shoring up aging bridges – fund it now, or pay (more) later. Certainly, no one wants to do have this discussion in the aftermath of a serious accident.

It’s an elusive search for the Holy Grail of pavement – the smartest, most economical, efficient and long-lasting repairs that can extend the life of roads. Note, repairs are almost always much more economical and green than the wholesale reconstruction of a road. And as it turns out, there is a range of methods employed in different places at different times of year that seek to avoid reconstruction wherever and however possible.

To most people who work outside of the pavement and surface transportation business, all asphalt looks and functions the same. It’s all small rocks (aggregate), mashed and held together by some kind of black, goopy, hardened emulsifier. It’s laid down hot and steaming. And when road crews fix the potholes, those fixes seem to be temporary at best.

But asphalt is not one thing with one set of physical features. Far from it, in fact.

For example, the little aggregate rocks that are mashed together vary somewhat from location to location. Crushed gravel has to be angular, not rounded, and within a specified range of size. But the bituminous emulsifiers, the black stuff that holds it all together, varies quite a bit by use and location.

This is because bituminous emulsions are more than just petroleum-derived goop. They are complex and specific concoctions, stabilized by intermolecular repulsive and attractive forces. Chemists and engineers who work with emulsifiers have to ensure consistency of the materials so that it is appropriate for the application – for example, the differences between filling a truck-route highway pothole in January and paving a light-traffic parking lot in July. Further, the emulsion selected has to be stored and transported in ways that enable operational efficiencies.

This is a tall order. And, how right those chemists, engineers and road construction or maintenance crews get it affects everyone. The challenge encompasses motorists who want neither bottleneck traffic nor damage to their vehicles’ undercarriage, regional commerce that depends on surface transportation efficiency, and passengers whose safety is in part a function of road quality. We may not have theories of colloid science in our head as we travel the highways and byways, but fortunately, other people have already worked this out for us.

Complicating things further, roads are built in all climates, from the equatorial regions of Africa and South America to the sub-arctic and even arctic ranges of Canada, the U.S., Europe and Asia. At all latitudes, there are challenges to the integrity of the asphalt, and consequently pavement deterioration and potholes can and do occur in all regions – not just the classic temperate climates, where freeze-thaw cycles do a good job of creating potholes.

Pothole repair: Different materials, different methods

The original construction of those roads can be planned, scheduled for the right times of year when temperature and other climactic conditions are ideal. However, the repair of roads, filling potholes so that traffic can keep moving, is perhaps more challenging than building those roads. (Mayors are voted out of office, sometimes, if those darn potholes don’t get fixed in time for an election.) This is why different types of asphalt, largely defined by their emulsifiers and how they are applied, are so very important. We outline several choices here.

Hot mix (warmer, drier weather) – For larger jobs, the economics of a full hot mix operation usually makes sense. The asphalt is mixed at 300 degrees (Fahrenheit, 148 degrees Celsius), then must be kept sufficiently hot while the application and compaction is complete. For the most part, it can only be applied when the ground itself is warm and dry. A cold base will cause the mix to cool before setting, which is the primary reason that winter potholes are filled with one or the other version of a cold patch material. The presence of excess moisture also prevents good adhesion between layers (lifts) of asphalt.

Hot box mix (warmer, drier air) – Stockpiled hot mix that has cooled can be rejuvenated and held at a work site, heated by propane or diesel heating systems. Typically, this is done by the ton (two or four tons at a load), so it is more applicable to larger repair work than one-off potholes.

Recycled hot mix (warmer, drier weather) – The Federal Highway Administration advocates for the recycling of pavement, wherever and whenever possible, for both environmental and cost-management reasons. Recycling can reduce overall costs over the lifecycle of a road, reduce landfill dumping of old pavement and reduce the need to source raw materials. It generally is used in the construction of whole roadways, but is sometimes used to repair sections of streets and highways where there is significant deterioration but a full replacement of the road would be cost-prohibitive. Laying down the recycled material is similar to hot mix.

Temporary cold patch (cool, drier weather) –  This is used for pothole patching and other repairs in colder months. Because it can be applied at colder temperatures, road crews can move from site to site without concern for the viscosity of the mix as the day wears on (hot mix would harden before application). Or, the mix might be kept on a general maintenance truck for one-off pothole repairs while crews are tending to a variety of roadway repair matters. It is not durable and consequently is considered temporary, providing just enough patch to last to the warmer months when a more permanent hot mix might be used. Also, moisture at the repair site needs to be dried out (with a version of a hot air blower) in order to achieve some tack between the material and the surrounding intact pavement.

Advanced polymer-modified cold patch (cool and wet weather) – Although more expensive by the pound, a higher-quality cold asphalt mix is formulated to create a permanent fix. Because it can be applied in cold temperatures and in wet conditions, it operationally is very useful for road crews making repairs in the winter (sparing them from making a return repair trip three to six months after application of a temporary cold mix). As with the lower-quality temporary cold patch, small quantities can be kept on hand on all maintenance vehicles, ready for repairs where and when the occasion calls for it. Repairing pavement once instead of two or three times might well offset the higher expense of the base polymer-modified material.

Polyurethane-base systems (all temperature, dried surfaces) – This is a material sold for highway, commercial and residential applications, and is specifically recommended for pothole repair. It sets in about ten minutes, requires no primer, can be used to block moisture in concrete and asphalt fissures, and with the addition of a catalyst, can be applied in cooler temperatures. The surface area where it applied – remember that most potholes are in low, moisture-prone areas – must be dried before application of the material. A treated sand is included with the product, mixed onsite immediately before application.

Polyphalt polymer-modified bitumen technology (all temperatures, wet and dry surfaces) – Engineered specifically for the colder climate of Canada and other countries with similar climates – stemming from research and development at the University of Toronto – this employs a proprietary process that stabilizes plastics in asphalt and the devulcanization of crumb rubber from waste car tires.

Mobile infrared repair-recycle vehicles (all temperature, dried surfaces) – Using heat technology administered by a mobile infrared unit, existing asphalt is recycled in place. Technicians use the unit to warm the area to be repaired, softening the intact pavement around the pothole up to five inches into the asphalt. Once softened, the unit moves aside and the old asphalt is raked and reshaped to fill the pothole (in some cases, oil pitting will require the disposal of old asphalt). A rejuvenating emulsion is then used on the recycled material, usually with some new asphalt added, which is laid down and compacted by a separate compactor while still hot. Different grades of new asphalt are used for summer and winter applications.

“Pothole killer” truck-mounted units (all temperature, dried surfaces) – In use by several municipalities, including Utica, New York, this is a single-person operation that is recognized for taking work crews out of harm’s way. A robotic arm handles the entire operation, hovering several feet over the hole (and in front of the operator, sitting in the truck cab) starting with a blast of air pressure to clean the pothole. This is followed as the arm delivers an emulsion coagulent (tack coat), then a spray of emulsion and stone (tar and rock), filling the hole. A dry coat of stone is applied on top – slightly different procedures and formulations are applied in winter and summer.

Ultra-tough, low-viscosity nanomolecular resin (all temperature, in development) – Researchers at UCLA Engineering (University of California at Los Angeles) are working on a pothole-repair technology that employs a nanomolecular resin that infiltrates pavement cracks, then cures and hardens to form a continuous network of mechanical “cages” that mechanically lock in asphalt aggregates. The product takes “a radically different approach, infiltrating the compacted asphalt-aggregate mixture with an ultra-high-toughness, low-viscosity nanomolecular resin,” says a co-principal investigator of the research program, J.W. Ju, UCLA professor of civil and environmental engineering.

There are other technologies developed by a handful of companies that are proprietary and difficult to examine other than by their benefits. It’s clear that all companies are driving toward providing a more permanent pothole repair, materials and processes that are operationally easy to implement and which are affordable by municipalities, commercial enterprises and homeowners.

Road building and repair methods have evolved considerably in recent years in response to the aging nature of U.S. roads and highways. Much stands to be gained by further research and development of colloid science in bituminous emulsions used by the paving and road maintenance industries.

For now, the smart application of a variety of materials at the right time and in the right places already ensures better economics and road performance than most people know.

Transportation Nation (TransportationNation.org) reports that a $325,000 television advertising campaign in favor of reinvestment in infrastructure may have pushed the issue into the campaign – and that at least one candidate is responding in the affirmative.

The group sponsoring the ads is Building America’s Future, a bipartisan organization chaired by former Pennsylvania Governor (D) Ed Rendell, current New York City (I) Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former California Governor (R) Arnold Schwarzenegger.

A bulk of that money, $250,000, was spent in New Hampshire, creating “some talk of infrastructure spending,” according to TransportationNation.org. “Though not much, and the issue didn’t make its way into any debates.”  The website suggests an additional $75,000 ad buy in South Carolina might yet be effective at raising the issue in the Palmetto State’s two primaries (January 16 and 19) preceding the primary vote there on January 21.

Leading GOP hopeful Mitt Romney already remarked on the issue in a town hall meeting in South Carolina in December: “We’re going to have to make an investment in our infrastructure and that’s a place where if we make that investment, it will pay a return.” He illustrated this point by outlining how dredging deepwater ports “can pay back the cost” with increased shipping capacity.

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D), a member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, seems to be speaking for the Obama Administration in continuing to push for the national infrastructure bank, first proposed by the President in September 2011. The federally backed bank would channel private money to large infrastructure projects such as bridges, roads and mass transit. Gillibrand resurrected the concept when she spoke at a meeting of the Association for a Better New York, a business-labor-nonprofit organization, in January 2012.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce on highway funding in 2012

Meanwhile, Tom Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, outlined five priorities for the Chamber in 2012, one of which was to rebuild infrastructure. “If Congress doesn’t act by March 21, the Highway Trust Fund would be cut by 35 percent,” he warned, referring to federal transportation funding (SAFTEA-LU), which currently amounts to $52 billion per year through short-term funding measures. The Chamber says that “as many as 1.9 million new jobs could be created if public-private partnerships could be expanded for transport projects,” according to a January 12, 2012 article in Logistics Management magazine.

“We haven’t had an increase in the federal fuel tax in 19 years,” the magazine reports Donohue saying, noting how the Chamber supports higher fuel taxes when those revenues are reserved for transport-only project. “It has got to happen. It is the simplest thing that makes us more competitive, makes us safer and creates a lot of jobs.”

There are, however, many “ifs” to this story.

The winter predictions as of October 2011 had been almost dire: Colder and snowier than normal weather in the upper Midwest (Nebraska through western New York) had been forecasted by AccuWeather.com. But as of the second week in January, the following temperatures were posted for cities in that region: Chicago (46 degrees F), Buffalo (40 degrees), St. Louis (53 degrees), Omaha (49 degrees), Minneapolis (49 degrees), Milwaukee (47 degrees), Kansas City (52 degrees), Amarillo, Texas (48 degrees), Nashville (49 degrees), Detroit (45 degrees), Indianapolis (49 degrees) and Des Moines (50 degrees). In each of these cities, there was not a snowflake in sight. On most days, sunshine prevailed as well.

In case you do not live in this region, you should know this much: such temperatures in January are considered “balmy.”

If anything, the concern is about dry weather, where a lack of snowmelt in the spring might lead to drought-like conditions next summer. Time magazine reports that “at the end of 2011, less than 20 percent of the continental U.S. was covered with snow, compared to more than 50% at the end of 2010.”

This turnabout in weather patterns can have a significant impact on pavement. In a typical winter, the onslaught of snow, ice, freeze-thaw cycles, road salt and snow plows leads to the second portion of each calendar year: Pothole Season. It’s an annual race against physics and forecasts for northern-tier cities’ departments of street maintenance: fill potholes as they open up during winter with a temporary, lower-quality cold patch material, then return in the spring and summer with a more permanent roadway fix of higher quality hot asphalt (which doesn’t work in freezing and wet conditions).

Winter conditions aren’t the only thing that can cause pavement to deteriorate. In fact, potholes are often just as common in the tropics and semi-tropics, places where the thermometer almost never dips below 32 degrees F (0 degrees C).

Road quality in Hawaii and California ranks with the bottom five states (along with New York, Alaska and Rhode Island) of a national survey conducted by Reason.org. The roads with the best conditions (judged on the basis of state highway systems) are Nebraska, New Mexico, Kansas, Montana and North Dakota. These numbers strongly suggest that pavement deterioration (i.e., potholes) are a function of something other than just winter weather.

In fact, a combination of moisture, traffic and time can deteriorate a road pretty effectively. It’s just that icy temperatures – especially when they oscillate above and below 32 degrees F (0 degrees C), allow water and ice to pry open roadway cracks – plus salt and snow plows, are what add to the damage. The CBC News in Canada reported from Regina, Saskatchewan in early January that the normally ice-bound city is experiencing just such oscillations in this mild winter, such that they expect a greater number of potholes than normal.

“During the day the ice melted, and the melted water was going through the cracks, and at night it freezes and pushes back,” Nigora Yulyakshieva, the City of Regina’s manager of roadways preservation, told the news service. She explained that roads in Saskatchewan are built to withstand colder weather, so they are not able to handle the freeze-thaw cycle as well as cities with warmer climates.

“We don’t notice it yet, but what will happen in the spring is we will see more potholes and bumps if temperatures stay as they are,” she said.

As Yulyakshieva suggests, municipalities further south that are experiencing a mild winter are likely to see fewer potholes if these weather conditions persist (a big if that is – AccuWeather says that temperatures and precipitation could well return to normal conditions in February and March).

The creeping dilemma of deteriorating roads, streets and highways

The unfortunate news is that the roads were in bad shape to begin with. A mild winter does not make the old potholes go away.

The single largest contributor to the pothole problem in the U.S. and many other regions of the developed world is simply time: roads built in the three decades following World War II are now more than 50 years old. Local, state and federal highway maintenance departments have learned a lot over these years, including how to manage small pavement cracks before they grow into crevasses and potholes.

But the system is so large that routine maintenance has been judged to be expensive. Some of that has been penny-wise-dollar-foolish thinking, as deferred maintenance can increase the cost by as much as a factor of seven (to illustrate, think about cracks and cuts in pavement that instead are left unsealed, then add water to those pavement breaks just before the temperatures dip below freezing, winter upon winter, for several years – a process some refer to as “frost wedging”).

The truth is we’re not keeping up with those cracks. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) states that spending nationally on road and highway maintenance should be around $166 billion per year, but in recent years – even with the infusion of 2009 and 2010 federal economic stimulus funds – that number peaked around $114 billion. Outside of stimulus dollars, only about $78 billion is spent in other years. Adding to the problem, federal gas taxes (18.4 cents per gallon) that make up the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) are declining as vehicle fuel efficiency increases. Just at the time when the money is needed, more than ever, repair revenues are down.

Hold the salt, pass the asphalt?

Factoring into streets and highway maintenance is how money is not being spent this mild winter. The Associated Press reported in late December, “the mild weather has been a boon for cash-strapped cities that have hardly touched their salt supplies or snow-removal budgets.”  Bloomington, Illinois public works director Jim Karch says he’s spent only $8,000 of a $325,000 winter labor budget thus far. In Normal, Illinois, the current expenditures of $2,100 compare to $140,000 spent by the same date one year earlier. The snowfall in Chicago (1.7 inches by the end of December, compared to the average 8.7 inches) means that only $500,000 in snow removal was spent in December as compared to $6 million in December of 2010 – with $19,500,000 remaining in the winter budget.

So, we should count our blessings that a milder winter might mean fewer new potholes in 2012 (unless, as in Regina, the temperature fluctuations around the freezing point meet up with the presence of moisture)? Or might it be smarter to just shut up about it lest we jinx our good fortune?

Perhaps by March or April, we’ll hear that the dollars saved on snow removal and salt is being channeled to street repairs. Until then, our lips are zipped and our fingers crossed.

A severe period of cold and snow is predicted for the upper Midwest, including storms expected to hit Chicago, Indianapolis, Omaha, Nebraska and of course Buffalo, New York. AccuWeather.com predicted in October 2011 that in terms of temperatures, Minneapolis will get the “worst of winter’s cold alone.” The meteorological site further predicts, “bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes in December through January.”

Texas, fresh off a drought-and-heat ridden summer – sometimes characterized by exploding pavement, where moisture under pavement turned to steam, quite like a pressure cooker – is expecting that “winter temperatures will be milder than normal, on average, with much-below-normal rainfall,” according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. “The coldest periods will occur in early and mid-December, early January, and early February.”

Arkansas is expecting drier, warmer temps than normal. Just north, in Missouri, the Almanac predicts warmer and drier weather as well in winter, but a cooler, wetter spring.

AccuWeather.com’s long range expert, Joe Bastardi, is predicting “severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida [that] would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we’ve seen in the last 20 years.” He predicts this based on a combination of strong El Nino and La Nina cycles and arctic volcanic activity, such as the Icelandic volcanoes (Eyjafjallajokull in 2010, Grimsvotn in 2011 and possibly an eruption of Mighty Katla in 2012) which severely impacted air traffic in Europe in 2010-2011 and could affect global temperatures in the year or two following 2012.

The freeze-thaw heave-hos – and truck traffic

Severe weather is one thing. No one likes shivering while waiting for their car to warm up, it’s never fun to drive in icy conditions, and no one wants to get stranded in their vehicles in a snowstorm. But the real problem, insofar as potholes go, is temperature fluctuations. Added to traffic and the simple passage of time, the dance above and below the point where water freezes is what rips pavement apart.

It is not at all unusual for most regions of the country – except those that are in the sub-tropics, where freezing temperatures rarely occur – to have frequent temperature variances above and below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) during certain seasons of the year. This is the point where water turns to ice, of course, which causes an expansion of cracks and crevices in a roadway, followed by erosion when the ice melts, and later more expansion the next time temperatures again drop below 32 degrees. A small crack can turn into a gaping pothole in a matter of days when such conditions are right.

Exacerbating all that is traffic, as heavy vehicles roll over those small gaps in space. The pressing action of cars and trucks – especially the trucks, which weigh as much as 19,000 pounds per axel, several times more than on passenger vehicles – squeezes sub-pavement water outward. In so doing, the freeze-thaw phenomenon is spread over a larger area.

Which gets to the dilemma of roads and trucks and pavement quality: our economy depends on trucks, and trucks depend on good roads. Truck delivery is intrinsic to commerce – from ports and freight train intermodal transfer sites to retailers, manufacturers, commercial buildings and residences. When pavement is in poor condition, trucks incur damage (flat tires, broken axels – and accidents) or at least are forced to drive slower. Potholes literally slow the wheels of commerce, adding time and expense to trucking operations and those businesses that depend on them.

There are more than 3.2 million people employed as short-haul and long-haul truck drivers in the U.S., with about 15.5 million trucks in operation, about two million of which are tractor trailers (the biggest vehicles). In any given year, trucks log more than 430 billion miles on U.S. roads, streets and highways. Freight trains might be cheaper and able to move goods at lower energy costs, but they are slower and more cumbersome. In the United States, moving goods by surface vehicles (trucks on roads) commands 88 percent of all shipping dollars. This reflects a trend away from rail shipping that began with the construction of the interstate highway system in the middle of the 20^th century.

Truck traffic somewhat correlates with denser population, such as is seen around cities like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Jacksonville, Florida. Statewide, the average annual daily traffic (AADT) actually increases at a greater rate than the increase in population in rural counties, as those counties’ interstate highways are main corridors of transportation between population centers (source: Florida Department of Transportation, Project Traffic Forecasting Handbook, October 2002).

In other words, traffic is spread evenly throughout the interstate highway system, somewhat apart from where the population centers are. Secondary highways, roads and streets of course get much more traffic in the urban areas, leading to significant pavement deterioration from vehicular traffic in combination with weather conditions. The same can be said in crossroads/manufacturing states such as Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois and throughout the country.

Pothole blitz worked in Virginia

In the springs of 2010 and 2011, the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) approached its own roadway pothole problem with a “pothole blitz.”

According to a press statement from the state’s governor, Bob McDonnell, “Virginia’s transportation network is vital to our economic prosperity and connects people to their work, homes, families and friends. Although the milder winter we experienced this year has led to fewer potholes to repair than the 161,00 filled during our 2010 pothole blitz, VDOT and its contractors promptly responded when Virginia citizens reported potholes to VDOT’s website or called their customer service center. The pothole blitz has helped to make travel safer and easier for all Virginia motorists.”

The repairs were made to state-maintained roads and interstates. It was driven by a public education campaign, asking residents to report potholes by way of VDOT, which then conducted a triage of sorts in determining where to fix roads first. Severe potholes in highly trafficked areas were given priority, fixed within 24 hours of reporting.

In online news stories about the Virginia blitz, the commenting readers complained that these potholes were given temporary filler. (Temporary repairs with lower-quality cold mix asphalt are often necessary in colder conditions, however higher-quality, permanent-fix cold mix asphalt is in increasing use by many municipalities.) The state responded by saying that reconstruction or more resilient, permanent repaving constituted the second part of this program, repairs that commenced once the freeze-thaw season had passed.

Whether that crossing is at-grade or slightly elevated, it appears to be a cruel joke. The  car or truck might be traveling at a good clip, with no reason to break for the tracks because there are no red flashing signals, lowered gates or trains within sight or earshot. Still, the driver has to break on the approach because his or her vehicle actually risks damage from the road assault. Irregular pavement breaks might cause a three, four or even five-inch step for the wheels to climb. This can flatten tires, wreck the front end of the car and weaken brakes and suspension systems.

It might be a better experience than the random pothole in that you know it’s coming (assuming it’s a railway crossing you are familiar with). But it’s better by only a bit.

The reason for the disconnection between an otherwise smooth road – itself a rarity in a system of road and bridge infrastructure that is in marked decline nationwide – and bumpy track crossings is partially due to bureaucracy. Government entities (cities, townships, counties, states and the federal government) are responsible for road building and maintenance. Private railroad companies manage the railroad lines, including the full right-of-way, the ten or more feet on each side of the tracks.

The main problem is these two separate entities conduct maintenance on different schedules and from different pools of money. The fortunes of railroads and municipalities are not necessarily in sync, so while one might have the budget available to make repairs to its portion of roadway, the other may not.

Aside from bureaucratic factors, the situation is complicated further by the physics of asphalt pavement, summarized as follows:

• Moisture plus railways equals pavement breakdown. The enemy of all asphalt pavement is moisture. This clearly happens in northern states such as Massachusetts, New York, Illinois and Minnesota, where freeze-thaw cycles add a confounding dimension to the problem. But southern-latitude states that include Florida, Texas, California and even Hawaii have their own problems with potholes and bumpy railway level crossings. This is because fluid moisture – coupled with inadequate crack sealing and other maintenance – still leads to pavement deterioration. Add the physical makeup of a railroad track and the problem gets worse. Moisture and debris accumulate in the cracks between rails, wood timber ties, rubber and steel plates. Metal rails that warm up in a winter sun might add a few freeze-thaw cycles on 30-degree days. And when the railroad bed is raised, the earth underneath the soil can freeze a little earlier than the road leading to it.

• Multi-ton freight trains shake up the surrounding pavement. Vibration can also be the great destroyer. Railroad tracks are designed to “give,” with just enough flex to accommodate variations in wheel mechanics and freight weight. Meanwhile, motorists prefer for those railcars to pass through at a brisk speed, reducing their wait time. It adds up to vibrations and a subtle shifting of track components, all of which allow more moisture to enter the surrounding pavement.

Some municipalities even the differences by sharing the costs of railway-pavement fixes from their own budget. But absorbing those costs are always a contentious issue at town council meetings, reconciling citizen complaints against budget realities.